Wars
Wars are always won in one of two ways. Either one of the combatants is utterly and completely defeated, like Germany and then, Japan, in World War II. Or, one of the parties is not fighting on its own soil and it just gets tired, or discouraged and leaves the battlefield.
The second was the case for the US in Vietnam and, again in Afghanistan. In both cases, I mean that total victory was achieved. After their respective defeats, Germany and Japan re-started themselves as completely different countries, with no trace of authoritarianism or militarism. Notably, eighty years later, they still consider their main victor, the US, as their best friend.
Although they may not have dominated the struggle on a purely military basis (I don’t know), both the North Vietnamese and the Afghan Taliban, won a complete victory. I mean by this that there is zero chance the US was or would be tempted to dislodge them. I also mean that they have no serious competitor at home.
Think it through. It’s hard to find an instance of a war followed by a long lasting peace that does not fulfill one of these two criteria: total defeat or discouragement by a foreign enemy.
Applying these ideas to the current conflicts, I only see a resolution of the Ukraine war if Russia is beaten flat and does not carry anything home for its trouble: no Dombas, no Ukrainian city or village. (I am of two minds about the Crimea because it was only part of the Ukraine since 1954, having been given to it by Khrushchev as a gift.) If these conditions are not fulfilled, the war will start again and again.
What of Israel’s war in Gaza? First, Gaza is so close to Israel, it’s hard to see the Israeli troops as fighting on foreign territory. After all, Israeli soldiers can easily get weekend passes home. It’s possible nevertheless to imagine that they will get tired of this war, possible but not likely. At any rate, Israel is faced with a tough situation. It seems to me that Hamas is in no mood to be beaten or to capitulate. The Hamas leaders we know (the only ones that matter, I think) welcome death in the service of their mission. (Their mission, let’s remember, is the annihilation of Israel.)
If the Hamas leaders are models for a small percentage of their followers, say ten per cent, they still make up a serious challenge for the Israelis. If there remains one hundred Hamas fighters determined to kill or die, they could continue their resistance for years. By denying Gaza its peace, they can probably guarantee that Israel will need to be present there for a very long time. Israel has to kill or capture pretty close to all Hamas operatives.
Perhaps, the long time will become forever depending on the after- effects of the invasion of Gaza by Israel. One can imagine two. On the one hand, the Gazans may emerge from their current misfortune thoroughly chastised, wishing never again to see such horrors, like the Germans in 1945. On the other hand, the bravery of Hamas fighters, their relative success in affronting an enemy vastly superior in both technology and numbers, will inspire young Gazans to join Hamas. It’s even possible to imagine that Hamas will more than replenish its decimated ranks. (I am not dreaming. Throughout the harsh, brutal Israeli offensive, the popularity of Hamas seems to have declined little among Gazans.) It’s also possible that the two scenario will become true: Most Gazans will be thoroughly disgusted with war while some will flee to Hamas.
There is one way to total victory in Gaza for Israel: It has to empty Gaza of its population so it can fight with no limits. The war in Gaza is unlike any other war in one respect: The civilians are absolutely limited if they wish to flee the fighting because they live within a fenced in area. If I were Israel, I would offer all Gazans who so desire a chance to escape to a camp set up in the Negev desert next door. It would not be extremely difficult for Israel to motivate international organizations to establish fairly comfortable encampments there with money from the rich Arab states. Every single Gazan wishing to relocate would be searched thoroughly. (I have done the calculation; it’s entirely feasible. Think of thousands searching millions.) With Gazans placed in an unfamiliar environment but in peace, surrounded by a hostile population, disarmed, there is little harm Hamas could do besides generate propaganda. And Israel would now have what it never had in Gaza: a free hand to go after Hamas without limit (without the limiting influence of the United States, in particular).
I wonder what’s wrong with this plan.