Three election verdicts -- UK, France and Iran: Common threads and key takeaways

Introduction

Three election verdicts – the triumph of a moderate in Iran’s presidential election, the win of the Labour Party in UK and a confused verdict in France – which kept the far right at bay in France have been welcomed by liberal commentators who have argued that this signals a clear reversal in the fortunes of populist leaders – on the right of the ideological spectrum – which has been on the ascendant over the past decade.

A few points need to be borne in mind. First, on certain issues it is tough even for leaders perceived to be moderate, flexible and pragmatic to go against the prevailing public sentiment. For instance in Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian may be in favour of social reforms and changing the course of Iranian foreign policy, but he faces limitations. While personally, the 69 year old Masoud Pezeshkian has alluded to the need for Iran to engage with the rest of the world, to shed economic isolation it is important not to lose sight of the fact that the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei has a say on crucial issues, but Pezeshkian can not go against the public sentiment on foreign policy issues (the Iranian President elect has already asserted his support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah group). In UK, the Labour Party dispensation headed by 61 year old Keir Starmer is unlikely to drastically alter the immigration policy of the previous Conservative Government. Before the elections, Starmer had already indicated that his party would seek to reduce “net migration”. In a media interview, former UK PM Tony Blair said:

“..Keir is absolute right in saying you’ve got to have controls on immigration”.

In France, Jean-Luc Melenchon’s France Unbowed (LFI) party – considered to be hard left – has emerged as the largest political outfit within the New Popular Front (NFP) leftist alliance which has emerged as the single largest political grouping in the recent election.

The leader admires left wing populist of Latin America and is known for his hard boiled ‘Anti-Americanism’. His views on economic issues are populist and have come in for criticism from members of the NFP.

Even in the US, going by current trends there is a growing possibility of the Republicans – under Donald Trump -- winning the 2024 Presidential elections. This could result in a return to a more populist and insular discourse in the US. As it is, Trump’s stance on immigration, trade agreements has forced the Democrats to re-orient their economic policies ever since Trump won the 2016 presidential election.  

While liberal commentators would be relieved with some of the results, it is unlikely that ‘populism’, anti-globalization or ‘antiimmigration’ sentiment are likely to disappear overnight. For populists to be kept at bay it is important that the alternatives are successful in providing good governance.