The results of the general elections in Thailand (held May 14, 2023) are important for several reasons. The Move Forward Party (MFP) an opposition party which has been calling for a significant overhaul of Thailand’s existing political landscape secured 151 in a house of 500. Move Forward has surpassed Pheu Thai an outfit led by former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s daughter by 10 seats. MFP is led by Pita Limjaroenrat a 42 year old Harvard University Graduate. The party has called for a drastic reform of the bureaucracy, monarchy and a fundamental shift in economic and social policies. Many MFP candidates had also been members of the student movement, which had challenged the military’s influence over the country’s politics. The move forward had focused especially on reaching out to first time voters aged between 18-22.
While Pheu Thai has said that it is ready to join a coalition led by MFP along with some smaller parties it remains to be seen if political outfits supporting the army try to create obstacles for the formation of such a coalition. Future Forward, the predecessor of the Move Forward, had received 80 seats (the third largest share of seats) in the 2019 elections, but was disqualified via the verdict of a constitutional court.
Thailand’s electoral results have several important take-aways for the ASEAN region and beyond:
First, the results reiterate the global trend of growing disenchantment, amongst younger voters, with traditional political outfits. Two, it is clearly evident that political start-ups can upstage established political parties if they run effective campaigns. Third, the efficient use of social media plays an important role in electoral campaigns. While commenting on the outcome of the election, the leader of MFP said that the result was ‘positive’ and “it’s time for Thailand to change”.
There are also some key takeaways specifically in the context of ASEAN. Firstly, for long it has been argued that Singapore, a de-facto one party system (run by the People’s Action Party/PAP), has performed better than democracies because of less chaos and confusion and policy paralysis (Singapore’s GDP per capita in December 2022 was estimated at over $ 80,000 in 2022 far higher than that of Indonesia and Malaysia — both democracies. Deng Xiaoping, hailed as the father of China’s economic reforms which paved the way for its economic rise also drew inspiration from Singapore’s model (during a visit to the ASEAN city state in 1978, Deng was impressed by the progress made by Singapore)
Second, for very long citizen of most ASEAN countries have been focused more on economic growth and delivery of services. In recent years, several youth groups have been focusing more on democracy, civil rights and accountability. It is not just Thailand, but even in neighbouring Singapore currently run by the PAP, which is witnessing the slow rise of the Workers’ party, a left of centre outfit, which has challenged the economic model of the ruling party and is drawing the support of Singapore’s young voters. While the PAP won the 2020 elections comfortably, Workers’ Party raised its tally from 6 to 10 seats in the 2020 parliamentary elections.
Third, the challenge to the military in Thailand, could also have an impact on Myanmar where the military junta took over in 2021 via a coup and replaced the National League for Democracy (NLD) government. Aung San Suu Kyi along with several members of her party have been arrested since. In December 2022, Suu Kyi was sentenced to seven more years in prison – she will now have to spend a total of 33 years in prison. While the MFP and Pheu Thai both could be considerate on issues pertaining to refugees, it remains to be seen if Pheu Thai would be willing to support the shadow national unity government (NUG) in Myanmar.
Fourth, China and US would be closely watching the verdict not just in the context of the geopolitics of ASEAN but also an increasing trend in younger voters of South-East Asia to push for more open and transparent governments and an increasing disenchantment with authoritarianism.
In conclusion, the result in Thailand is crucial not just in the context of the country itself, but the region as well as globally. While it is premature to make too many forecasts the outcome is important.